{"id":10895,"date":"2026-09-20T00:07:41","date_gmt":"2026-09-19T15:07:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/triumphmind.com\/cma\/2026\/09\/20\/g2-econ-35\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T00:19:00","modified_gmt":"2026-09-19T15:19:00","slug":"g2-econ-35","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/triumphmind.com\/cma\/2026\/09\/20\/g2-econ-35\/","title":{"rendered":"\u666f\u6c17\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u8a08\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u3068\u306f\uff1f\u610f\u5473\u3068\u8a66\u9a13\u3067\u554f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\uff5c\u8a3c\u5238\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b9\u30c82\u6b21\u30fb\u5e02\u5834\u3068\u7d4c\u6e08\u306e\u5206\u6790"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>.cma-tbl{margin:1.2em 0 1.6em;overflow-x:auto;-webkit-overflow-scrolling:touch;border-radius:8px;box-shadow:0 1px 4px rgba(34,0,94,.12);}.cma-tbl table{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse!important;margin:0!important;font-size:15px;line-height:1.6;background:#fff;border:none!important;}.cma-tbl th,.cma-tbl td{padding:10px 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\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u5206\u6790\u30fb\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u7d4c\u6e08\u7684\u8981\u56e0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th>\u5354\u4f1a\u306e\u5b66\u7fd2\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8<\/th>\n<td>\u8a08\u91cf\u7d4c\u6e08\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u308b\u666f\u6c17\u5909\u52d5\u5206\u6790\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<h2>\u666f\u6c17\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u8a08\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u3068\u306f<\/h2>\n<p>\u7d4c\u6e08\u306f\u3001\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306a\u6210\u9577\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u306e\u307e\u308f\u308a\u3092\u3001\u62e1\u5f35\u3068\u5f8c\u9000\u3092\u7e70\u308a\u8fd4\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\u52d5\u3044\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e<strong>\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u306e\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u306a\u5909\u52d5<\/strong>\u304c\u666f\u6c17\u5909\u52d5\u3067\u3059\u3002\u666f\u6c17\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u8a08\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u7d71\u8a08\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u3081\u3066\u3001\u300c\u3044\u307e\u306e\u666f\u6c17\u306f\u3069\u306e\u5c40\u9762\u304b\u300d\u300c\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30af\u306f\u3069\u306e\u304f\u3089\u3044\u7d9a\u304f\u304b\u300d\u300c\u3069\u306e\u5909\u6570\u304c\u666f\u6c17\u3092\u52d5\u304b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u300d\u3092\u6570\u5b57\u3067\u793a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3068\u5faa\u74b0\u3092\u5206\u3051\u308b<\/h3>\n<p>\u5206\u6790\u306e\u51fa\u767a\u70b9\u306f\u3001GDP\u306a\u3069\u306e\u7cfb\u5217\u3092<strong>\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\uff08\u9577\u671f\u306e\u6210\u9577\uff09<\/strong>\u3068<strong>\u5faa\u74b0\uff08\u666f\u6c17\u306e\u6ce2\uff09<\/strong>\u306b\u5206\u3051\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u3084HP\u30d5\u30a3\u30eb\u30bf\u30fc\u306a\u3069\u3067\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u53d6\u308a\u51fa\u3057\u3001\u5b9f\u7e3e\u3068\u306e\u5dee\u3092<strong>GDP\u30ae\u30e3\u30c3\u30d7<\/strong>\uff08\u9700\u7d66\u30ae\u30e3\u30c3\u30d7\uff09\u3068\u3057\u3066\u666f\u6c17\u306e\u5f37\u3055\u306e\u76ee\u5b89\u306b\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u666f\u6c17\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b<\/h3>\n<p>GDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\u3092\u3001\u91d1\u5229\u30fb\u70ba\u66ff\u30fb\u6d77\u5916\u666f\u6c17\u30fb\u8ca1\u653f\u652f\u51fa\u306a\u3069\u306e\u8aac\u660e\u5909\u6570\u3067\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u63a8\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5404\u5909\u6570\u304c\u666f\u6c17\u306b\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u5f71\u97ff\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3055\u3068\u5411\u304d\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4fc2\u6570\u306e<strong>t\u5024<\/strong>\u3067\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u6709\u610f\u304b\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u3001<strong>\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4fc2\u6570\uff08R<sup>2<\/sup>\uff09<\/strong>\u3067\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u307e\u308a\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u666f\u6c17\u306e\u300c\u304f\u305b\u300d\u3092\u3068\u3089\u3048\u308b<\/h3>\n<p>\u666f\u6c17\u306b\u306f\u3001\u826f\u3044\u72b6\u614b\u30fb\u60aa\u3044\u72b6\u614b\u304c\u3057\u3070\u3089\u304f\u7d9a\u304f<strong>\u6301\u7d9a\u6027\uff08\u81ea\u5df1\u76f8\u95a2\uff09<\/strong>\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3092\u8868\u3059\u306e\u304cAR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3055\u3089\u306b\u3001GDP\u30fb\u7269\u4fa1\u30fb\u91d1\u5229\u306a\u3069\u8907\u6570\u306e\u5909\u6570\u304c\u4e92\u3044\u306b\u5f71\u97ff\u3057\u5408\u3046\u95a2\u4fc2\u306fVAR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u8868\u3057\u3001\u3042\u308b\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30af\uff08\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u91d1\u5229\u306e\u5f15\u304d\u4e0a\u3052\uff09\u304c\u5404\u5909\u6570\u306b\u3069\u3046\u6ce2\u53ca\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3092<strong>\u30a4\u30f3\u30d1\u30eb\u30b9\u5fdc\u7b54<\/strong>\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5206\u6790\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u62bc\u3055\u3048\u3066\u304a\u304d\u305f\u3044\u516c\u5f0f<\/h2>\n<div class=\"cma-formula\">y<sub>t<\/sub> \uff1d \u03b1 \uff0b \u03b2 x<sub>t<\/sub> \uff0b \u03b5<sub>t<\/sub><small>\u5358\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\uff1a\u8aac\u660e\u5909\u6570x\u304c1\u5358\u4f4d\u5909\u5316\u3059\u308b\u3068y\u304c\u03b2\u3060\u3051\u5909\u5316\u3059\u308b<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"cma-formula\">y<sub>t<\/sub> \uff1d c \uff0b \u03c6 y<sub>t\u22121<\/sub> \uff0b \u03b5<sub>t<\/sub><small>AR(1)\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\uff1a|\u03c6|\uff1c1\u306a\u3089\u5b9a\u5e38\u3067\u3001\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30af\u306f\u3084\u304c\u3066\u6d88\u3048\u3066\u3044\u304f<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"cma-formula\">\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747 \uff1d c \u00f7 (1 \u2212 \u03c6)<small>AR(1)\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u53ce\u675f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u6c34\u6e96<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"cma-formula\">t\u5024 \uff1d \u63a8\u5b9a\u4fc2\u6570 \u00f7 \u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee<small>\u7d76\u5bfe\u5024\u304c\u304a\u304a\u3080\u306d2\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u308c\u30705\uff05\u6c34\u6e96\u3067\u6709\u610f\u306e\u76ee\u5b89<\/small><\/div>\n<div class=\"cma-tbl two\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u8a18\u53f7<\/th>\n<th>\u610f\u5473<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>y<sub>t<\/sub><\/td>\n<td>t\u671f\u306e\u666f\u6c17\u6307\u6a19\uff08GDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\u306a\u3069\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>x<sub>t<\/sub><\/td>\n<td>\u8aac\u660e\u5909\u6570\uff08\u91d1\u5229\u30fb\u6d77\u5916\u666f\u6c17\u306a\u3069\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u03c6<\/td>\n<td>\u81ea\u5df1\u56de\u5e30\u4fc2\u6570\uff08\u6301\u7d9a\u6027\u306e\u5f37\u3055\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u03b5<sub>t<\/sub><\/td>\n<td>\u8aa4\u5dee\u9805\uff08\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u8aac\u660e\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30af\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<h2>\u5177\u4f53\u4f8b\u3067\u78ba\u8a8d<\/h2>\n<p>\u56db\u534a\u671f\u306e\u5b9f\u8ceaGDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\uff08\u5e74\u7387\u3001\uff05\uff09\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u6b21\u306eAR(1)\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u63a8\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3068\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>y<sub>t<\/sub> \uff1d 0.3 \uff0b 0.7 y<sub>t\u22121<\/sub><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747\uff1a0.3 \u00f7 (1 \u2212 0.7) \uff1d <strong>1.0\uff05<\/strong>\u3002\u666f\u6c17\u306f\u3053\u306e\u6c34\u6e96\u306b\u5411\u304b\u3063\u3066\u623b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u8db3\u5143\u306e\u6210\u9577\u7387\u304c \u22122.0\uff05\u306e\u3068\u304d\u30011\u671f\u5148\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a0.3 \uff0b 0.7 \u00d7 (\u22122.0) \uff1d <strong>\u22121.1\uff05<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>2\u671f\u5148\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a0.3 \uff0b 0.7 \u00d7 (\u22121.1) \uff1d <strong>\u22120.47\uff05<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u304b\u3089\u306e\u4e56\u96e2\u306f\u3001\u22123.0 \u2192 \u22122.1 \u2192 \u22121.47 \u3068\u6bce\u671f0.7\u500d\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u03c6\u304c\u5927\u304d\u3044\u307b\u3069\u4e56\u96e2\u306f\u7e2e\u307f\u306b\u304f\u304f\u3001\u4e0d\u6cc1\u304c\u9577\u5f15\u304d\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e56\u96e2\u304c\u534a\u5206\u306b\u306a\u308b\u307e\u3067\u306e\u671f\u9593\uff08\u534a\u6e1b\u671f\uff09\u306f ln0.5 \u00f7 ln0.7 \u2252 1.9\u671f\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"cma-exam\">\n<p class=\"cma-exam-title\">\u8a66\u9a13\u3067\u554f\u308f\u308c\u3084\u3059\u3044\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u63a8\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u6570\u5024\u3092\u4ee3\u5165\u3057\u3066<strong>1\u671f\u5148\u30fb2\u671f\u5148\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024<\/strong>\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\u8a08\u7b97\u3068\u3001\u305d\u306e\u904e\u7a0b\u3092\u793a\u3059\u554f\u984c\u306b\u5099\u3048\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/li>\n<li>AR(1)\u306e<strong>\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747 c \u00f7 (1 \u2212 \u03c6)<\/strong>\u3068\u3001\u03c6\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3055\u304c\u666f\u6c17\u306e\u6301\u7d9a\u6027\u3092\u8868\u3059\u3068\u3044\u3046\u89e3\u91c8\u304c\u554f\u308f\u308c\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u4fc2\u6570\u306e<strong>t\u5024\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6709\u610f\u6027\u306e\u5224\u65ad<\/strong>\u3084\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4fc2\u6570\u306e\u610f\u5473\u3092\u3001\u63a8\u5b9a\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u8868\u304b\u3089\u8aad\u307f\u53d6\u3089\u305b\u308b\u5f62\u306b\u6ce8\u610f\u3057\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u76f8\u95a2\u304c\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3082\u56e0\u679c\u3068\u306f\u9650\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3001<strong>\u898b\u305b\u304b\u3051\u306e\u56de\u5e30<\/strong>\uff08\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u6301\u3064\u5909\u6570\u540c\u58eb\u306e\u56de\u5e30\uff09\u306e\u5371\u967a\u6027\u3082\u8a18\u8ff0\u3067\u554f\u308f\u308c\u3084\u3059\u3044\u8ad6\u70b9\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li>GDP\u30ae\u30e3\u30c3\u30d7\u3084\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u30fb\u5faa\u74b0\u306e\u5206\u89e3\u304c\u3001\u666f\u6c17\u5224\u65ad\u306b\u3069\u3046\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u304b\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304d\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2>\u8981\u70b9\u307e\u3068\u3081<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>\u666f\u6c17\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u8a08\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u306f\u3001\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3068\u5faa\u74b0\u3092\u5206\u3051\u3001\u666f\u6c17\u306e\u6ce2\u3092\u56de\u5e30\u30fb\u6642\u7cfb\u5217\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u6570\u91cf\u5316\u3059\u308b<\/li>\n<li>AR(1)\u3067\u306f \u03c6 \u304c\u6301\u7d9a\u6027\u3092\u8868\u3057\u3001\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u306f c \u00f7 (1 \u2212 \u03c6)<\/li>\n<li>\u8907\u6570\u5909\u6570\u306e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u306fVAR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3001\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30af\u306e\u6ce2\u53ca\u306f\u30a4\u30f3\u30d1\u30eb\u30b9\u5fdc\u7b54\u3067\u898b\u308b<\/li>\n<li>\u63a8\u5b9a\u7d50\u679c\u306ft\u5024\u30fb\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4fc2\u6570\u3067\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u3001\u898b\u305b\u304b\u3051\u306e\u56de\u5e30\u306b\u6ce8\u610f\u3059\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"cma-link-box\">\n<p class=\"cma-link-box-title\">\u25b6 \u3042\u308f\u305b\u3066\u8aad\u307f\u305f\u3044<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/triumphmind.com\/cma\/2026\/09\/19\/cma2-economics\/\">\u3010\u8a3c\u5238\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b9\u30c82\u6b21\u3011\u5e02\u5834\u3068\u7d4c\u6e08\u306e\u5206\u6790\u3067\u5b66\u3076\u5185\u5bb9\u306e\u4e00\u89a7\u306b\u623b\u308b<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/triumphmind.com\/cma\/2026\/09\/20\/g2-econ-36\/\">\u6f5c\u5728\u6210\u9577\u7387<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/triumphmind.com\/cma\/2026\/09\/20\/g2-econ-41\/\">\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u7a2e\u985e\u3068\u9650\u754c<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/triumphmind.com\/cma\/2026\/09\/20\/g2-econ-11\/\">GDP\u7d71\u8a08\u3068\u666f\u6c17\u5faa\u74b0<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u8a3c\u5238\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b9\u30c8\u30a2\u30ab\u30c7\u30df\u30fc\u306eYouTube\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@cma-fa-academy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@cma-fa-academy<\/a>\uff09\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5b66\u7fd2\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u306b\u6cbf\u3063\u3066\u8ad6\u70b9\u30921\u3064\u305a\u3064\u89e3\u8aac\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/utage-system.com\/page\/98Nqc5o0yBvT\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u25b6 \u8a3c\u5238\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b9\u30c8\u30b3\u30df\u30e5\u30cb\u30c6\u30a3\u30fc\u306b\u53c2\u52a0\u3059\u308b<\/a><\/p>\n<p 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